首页|气候变化对粮食产出与技术效率的影响——河北省玉米生产为例

气候变化对粮食产出与技术效率的影响——河北省玉米生产为例

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通过构建气候变化的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和随机生产前沿模型,使用 1993-2018 年河北省11个市的气象和生产数据,探究了气候变化对河北省玉米产出和技术效率的影响.研究表明:在研究期间内,河北省气候干旱化趋势明显,全省气候干旱化频率显著高于气候湿润化频率.河北省干旱频率高值区集中在北部和中部地区,湿润频率高值区集中在东部和中部地区.河北省整体玉米生产技术效率相对较低,且各个市玉米生产平均技术效率差异较大.衡水市玉米生产的技术效率最高.气候变化与玉米产出和技术效率存在非线性关系,在一定范围内气候变化的干旱化趋势会给河北省玉米生产带来负向影响.
Effects of climate change on grain output and technical efficiency:evidence from maize in Hebei Province
By constructed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEl)of climate change and the stochastic production frontier model,and used the meteorological and production data of 11 cities in Hebei Prov-ince from 1993 to 2018,the impact of climate change on maize yield and technical efficiency in Hebei Province was explored.The results showed that during the study period,the climate aridification trend in Hebei was obvious,and the frequency of climate aridification in Hebei was significantly higher than that of climate humidification.The high drought frequency areas were concentrated in the northern and central regions,and the humid frequency high value areas were concentrated in the eastern and central regions.The overall technical efficiency of maize production in Hebei was relatively low,and the average technical efficiency of maize production varies greatly among different cities.Hengshui had the highest technical efficiency in corn production.There is a nonlinear relationship between climate change and maize production,and the trend of climate change will have a negative impact on maize produc-tion and technical efficiency in Hebei within a certain range.

climate changeSPEItechnical efficiencymaize production

陈杰、高珊

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河南工业大学 经济贸易学院 河南 郑州 410005

南京农业大学 经济与管理学院 江苏 南京 210095

气候变化 SPEI 技术效率 玉米生产

2024

粮食科技与经济
湖南省粮食经济科技学会 中诸粮管理总公司湖南分公司

粮食科技与经济

影响因子:0.505
ISSN:1007-1458
年,卷(期):2024.49(5)