Assessment of forestry carbon sink values based on Hartman model
In the face of the pressing challenges posed by global climate change,forestry carbon sink projects,as a crucial component of the mitigation strategy,have significant importance in their economic valuation for promoting sustainable project development and achieving the"dual carbon"targets.Based on the Hartman model,this paper employed the binomial tree real option method to conduct a value assessment of the carbon sink afforestation project in the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest in Hebei Province,and explored the impact of uncertainty factors on the project value.The research findings indicated that:(1)The valuation of options for the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Project in Hebei Province amounted to 9442 yuan/hm2,with an overall value of approximately 420 million yuan,demonstrating the crucial role of carbon sink revenue in enhancing project valuation.(2)When the volatility rate of carbon prices increased from 0.20 to 0.38,the project value increased by over 17%,indicating a significant positive impact.Simultaneously,the increase in timber prices and carbon sink prices also positively promoted the project value.However,when the risk-free interest rate rose from 3.5%to 6.5%,the project value decreased from 737 million yuan to 311 million yuan,indicating that an increase in the risk-free interest rate inhibited its growth.This not only provided novel insights into the valuation of forestry carbon sink projects,but also offered crucial references for optimizing project design,attracting investments and fostering harmonious regional economic and ecological development.This paper innovatively combined the Hartman model with the binomial tree real option method,comprehensively evaluated the economic value of forestry carbon sink,deepened the consideration of market uncertainty,and provided a novel pathway for scientific assessment.The paper put forward policy implications for governments to enhance policy incentives,boost market activity,refine carbon sink rights confirmation and trading mechanisms,and strengthen public education and awareness.
forestry carbon sinks projectoption valuebinomial tree real option methodHartman model
万方数据
维普
