气候变化对中国沿海红树林潜在分布格局的影响
Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Mangrove along the Chinese Coast
陈思明 1邓钟 1张红月 1陈飞 2宗翠红1
作者信息
- 1. 闽江学院地理与海洋学院,福建 福州 350108
- 2. 福清市乡村振兴发展中心,福建 福州 350300
- 折叠
摘要
探明气候变化对红树林分布的影响对红树林的保护与恢复具有重要意义.研究设置了3种气候变化情景(SSP1_2.6、SSP2_4.5 和SSP5_8.5),运用MaxEnt模型预测当前时段(1970-2014 年)与未来时期(2090 s)的气候条件下红树林的潜在分布区,探究红树林分布格局对气候变化的响应.结果表明:MaxEnt模型预测效果较好,测试集的AUC值均大于 0.90,TTS值超过 0.75;当前气候条件下,红树林的潜在分布区约占中国沿海区域的 3.16%,主要集中在福建、台湾、广东、海南和广西东南部的盐沼滩涂和河口湿地;制约红树林分布的关键因子为年平均气温、平均日较差、最冷月最低温、海拔和土壤电导率,5 个变量的累积贡献率达到了 80%以上;未来 3 种气候变化情景下,红树林的潜在分布区不断向高纬度方向扩展,最北端可能达到浙江中部到江苏南部的海岸带,质心位置也呈现出地带性转移.但3种气候变化情景下的红树林潜在分布面积发生了变化,其中,在SSP5_8.5 情景下,红树林分布面积表现为负增长,由当前的 3.16%下降到 2.76%.研究结果可为中国沿海红树林北向迁移提供一定科学依据.
Abstract
Understanding the impact of climate change on mangrove distribution is of great significance for their conservation and restoration.In this study,three climate change scenarios(SSP1_2.6,SSP2_4.5,SSP5_8.5)were set up.The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of mangrove under current(1970-2014 years)and future(2090s)climate conditions,and the response of mangrove distribution to climate change was analyzed.The results showed that:The prediction results of MaxEnt model were satisfactory,and the AUC value and the TTS value of test data were greater than 0.90 and 0.75,respectively.Under the current climate condition,potential distribution areas of mangrove were mainly located in salt marshes of Fujian,Taiwan,Guangdong,Hainan,and southeastern Guangxi,with the distribution areas accounting for 3.16%of the total coastal areas.The main factors affecting mangrove distributions were temperature(annual mean temperature,mean diurnal range,min temperature of coldest month)elevation and conductivity,with the cumulative contribution rate exceeding 80%.Under three climate scenarios,the potential distribution of mangrove will expand to high latitudes,and northern edge of mangrove distribution may reach the coastal zone from central Zhejiang to southern Jiangsu,showing a significant zonal transfer for geometric centroids.However,the potential distribution area of mangrove will change.There will be a negative growth trend under the SSP5_8.5 scenario,with the area decreasing from the current 3.16%to 2.76%.The research results can provide scientific basis for the northward migration of mangroves along the coast of China.
关键词
红树林/最大熵模型/潜在分布/气候变化/中国沿海Key words
Mangrove/Maximum entropy model/Climate change/Potential distribution/China coast引用本文复制引用
基金项目
福建省自然科学基金(2020J01831)
福建省自然科学基金(2021J011022)
福建省自然资源科技创新项目(KY-070000-04-2022-008)
闽江学院校长基金(103952022168)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据