Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Mangrove along the Chinese Coast
Understanding the impact of climate change on mangrove distribution is of great significance for their conservation and restoration.In this study,three climate change scenarios(SSP1_2.6,SSP2_4.5,SSP5_8.5)were set up.The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of mangrove under current(1970-2014 years)and future(2090s)climate conditions,and the response of mangrove distribution to climate change was analyzed.The results showed that:The prediction results of MaxEnt model were satisfactory,and the AUC value and the TTS value of test data were greater than 0.90 and 0.75,respectively.Under the current climate condition,potential distribution areas of mangrove were mainly located in salt marshes of Fujian,Taiwan,Guangdong,Hainan,and southeastern Guangxi,with the distribution areas accounting for 3.16%of the total coastal areas.The main factors affecting mangrove distributions were temperature(annual mean temperature,mean diurnal range,min temperature of coldest month)elevation and conductivity,with the cumulative contribution rate exceeding 80%.Under three climate scenarios,the potential distribution of mangrove will expand to high latitudes,and northern edge of mangrove distribution may reach the coastal zone from central Zhejiang to southern Jiangsu,showing a significant zonal transfer for geometric centroids.However,the potential distribution area of mangrove will change.There will be a negative growth trend under the SSP5_8.5 scenario,with the area decreasing from the current 3.16%to 2.76%.The research results can provide scientific basis for the northward migration of mangroves along the coast of China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
