首页|基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化对海南岛湿地景观潜在分布的影响

基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化对海南岛湿地景观潜在分布的影响

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掌握湿地景观适宜分布及其驱动因素是开展湿地资源合理利用和规划管理的重要前提.根据海南岛湿地景观空间分布数据和相关环境变量数据,运用MaxEnt最大熵模型模拟不同时段海南岛湿地景观的适宜分布区,定量分析影响湿地景观分布的驱动因素,并预测 2050 年和 2070 年未来气候情景模式下海南岛湿地景观潜在分布.结果表明:海南岛湿地景观的分布主要受地形和气温的影响,海拔越低、地面越平缓以及温度稳定、温差小的区域越适宜湿地的形成和分布;未来SSP1-2.6 模式下2050 年和 2070 年湿地景观的潜在分布面积均发生变化,不适宜区和低度适宜区面积将减少,而中高度适宜区面积将增加;气候变化对海南岛湿地景观的适宜区分布具有正向促进作用.研究结论可为海南岛湿地资源的保护和管理提供科学依据和决策参考.
Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Wetland Landscape in Hainan Island Based on MaxEnt Model
Understanding the appropriate distribution of wetland landscape and its driving factors is an important prerequisite for rational utilization and planning management of wetland resources.Based on the spatial distribution data of wetland landscapes in Hainan Island and related environmental variable data,this study used the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to simulate the suitable distribution areas of wetland landscapes in Hainan Island,quantitatively analyzed the driving factors influencing the distribution of wetland landscapes,and predicted the potential distribution of wetland landscapes in Hainan Island under future climate scenarios in 2050 and 2070.The results show that the distribution of wetland landscapes in Hainan Island is mainly influenced by terrain and temperature.The lower the altitude,the flatter the ground,and areas with stable temperature and small temperature differences are more suitable for the formation and distribution of wetlands;Under the SSP1-2.6 model in the future,the potential distribution area of wetland landscapes will change in 2050 and 2070,with a decrease in unsuitable and low suitability areas and an increase in medium to high suitability areas;Overall,climate change will still have a promoting effect on the distribution of wetland landscapes in Hainan Island.These conclusions provide important scientific basis and decision-making reference for the protection and management of wetland resources in Hainan Island.

Hainan IslandWetlandsMaxEnt modelClimate changeLandscape distribution

严沁兰、林瑞秀、雷金睿、吴庭天、李苑菱、李腾敏

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海南大学热带农林学院,海南 海口 570228

海南省林业科学研究院(海南省红树林研究院),海南 海口 571100

海口市湿地保护工程技术研究开发中心,海南 海口 571100

海南岛 湿地 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 景观分布

海南省自然科学基金高层次人才项目

423RC551

2024

湿地科学与管理
中国林业科学研究院

湿地科学与管理

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.354
ISSN:1673-3290
年,卷(期):2024.20(3)
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