Prediction of Potential Distribution of Shirahoshizo rufescens,a New Invasive Pest in China
[Objective]Recently,Shirahoshizo rufescens,an invasive insect pest was first discovered in a black pine forest of Weihai,Shandong Province,China.This paper tries to predict potential suitable distri-bution range of this pest to provide scientific basis for early warning and monitoring,and timely prevention and control.[Method]Based on climate and terrain factor datasets,combined with field distribution data,MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used to predict and analyze the changes in suitable distribution areas of S.rufescens under current and future climate scenarios.[Results]The suitable areas for S.rufescens were mainly distributed in eastern Asia,throughout Europe,and eastern North America,with sporadic dis-tribution in the southern part of South America and the southeastern part of Oceania.In China,the suit-able region mainly distributed in North China,Central China,East China etc.Under four future climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585),the high suitability zone decreased,the area of the middle suitable area increased at a faster rate than decreasing,while the low suitability zones significantly expanded.The centroid change in the suitable distribution area of this pest showed an overall trend of moving towards the northwest.[Conclusion]The average temperature in the coldest quarter(bio 11)and the average temperature in the driest quarter(bio 9)are the main limiting factors affecting the distribution of S.rufescens in China.With global warming,the suitable habitat area is gradually increasing,and the geographical distribution pattern is spreading to the northwest.Relevant departments need to strengthen early warning and prevention of the invasion of this pine bark weevil.
Shirahoshizo rufescensinvasive insect pestsuitable distribution areaMaxEnt model
万方数据
维普
