Recalculation of the Scale of China's Digital Economy and Dynamic Forecasting Based on Machine Learning
The digital economy serves as a strategic avenue for seizing new opportunities in the latest technological revolution and industrial transformation,and it is also a new driving force for promoting the high-quality development of China's economy.Under the clarification of digital industries and the digitalization of industries,this paper first re-estimates China's digital economy scale from 2002 to 2018 based on input-output table data.Secondly,it uses seven types of machine learning algorithms,in-cluding multilayer perceptron neural networks,to dynamically predict the long-term goals of China's digital economy by 2035,and simulates the specific impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the growth of the digital economy.The results show that from 2002 to 2018,the scale of China's digital economy has shown a rapid development trend,increasing from about 1.08 trillion yuan in 2002 to 14.84 trillion yuan in 2018,an increase of approximately 13.75 times.The digital economy plays a significant role in driv-ing economic growth,with an annual value-added growth rate of 13.4%,surpassing GDP growth by 4.1 percentage points.The pandemic has a significant reverse incentive effect on digital economy develop-ment from 2020 to 2025,with the digital economy's share of GDP projected to be 4%higher during the pandemic contrasted with the scenario without it.The scale of China's digital economy is expected to continue to grow from 2020 to 2035,reaching 29.36 trillion yuan by 2035.
digital economyCOVID-19long-term goalmachine learning
万方数据
维普
