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地方政府债务、经济增长与金融稳定的互动关系研究

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中国地方政府债务问题是经济结构矛盾不断累积、金融风险相互渗透和相互影响的综合反映,本文以金融经济周期理论和金融不稳定理论为基础,对地方政府债务、经济增长以及金融稳定之间的互动关系进行了实证研究.研究结果显示,地方政府债务扩张在短期能够刺激经济增长,但在长期会对宏观经济造成负面影响;地方政府债务规模的不合理扩张会引起宏观经济波动,造成债务风险,产生资产泡沫,促使杠杆率上升;这些风险隐患会进一步通过"银行信贷渠道"及"资产负债表渠道"蔓延至金融体系,影响金融稳定.
A Study on the Interaction of Local Government Debt,Economic Growth and Financial Stability
The problem of local government debt in China is a reflection of the ongoing accumulation of economic structural contradictions and the intertwined impact of financial risks.Drawing on the finan-cial-economic cycle and financial instability theories,this study empirically examines the relationship between local government debt,economic growth,and financial stability.Findings indicate that while the expansion of local government debt may temporarily boost economic growth,it poses long-term risks to the macroeconomy.Excessive debt accumulation by local governments can lead to macroeconomic fluctu-ations,debt risks,asset bubbles,and increased leverage.These risks can permeate the financial system via bank credit and balance sheets,thereby affecting financial stability.

local government debteconomic growthfinancial stabilitydebt riskasset pricestlever-age

许晓永、蒋雪、王澳

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兰州财经大学 金融学院,甘肃 兰州 730020

华龙证券股份有限公司,甘肃 兰州 730099

地方政府债务 经济增长 金融稳定 债务风险 资产价格 杠杆率

2024

兰州财经大学学报
兰州商学院

兰州财经大学学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.466
ISSN:1004-5465
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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