System Dynamics Evaluation and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Urban Traffic Carrying Capacity
For the sustainable development of urban traffic,the reliability of urban traffic carrying capacity is evalua-ted and scenario predicted.The urban traffic carrying capacity is redefined and the calculation model based on Sys-tem Dynamics(SD)is built.Taking Lanzhou City as an example,the future traffic carrying capacity reliability of Lanzhou City is assessed and forecast from 2023 to 2030 under five scenario development modes.The results show that the SD model has a high level of accuracy,and the absolute error is less than 3％.In 2030,the resource carrying capacity of Lanzhou City will be in a critical reliable state under 5 scenarios.And the environment carrying capacity will reach the maximum 30.88 when the environment is improved,which is basically reliable.And the social-eco-nomic carrying capacity will reach a peak of 24.8 in the comprehensive development type,which is critical reliable.The improvement of traffic resources and social-economic enhances the corresponding subsystem carrying capacity,but the traffic environment carrying capacity has a certain downward tendency,which is in accordance with the actual situation of urban traffic and verifies the complex positive and negative feedback relationship among the systems.The urban traffic carrying capacity shows a gradual increasing trend and will exceed 20 after 2026,which is within the critical reliable interval.The comprehensive development type will have the best improvement effect,with an increase of 47.2％in 2030 compared to 2022,which is close to the basic reliable range.
urban traffic carrying capacitysystem dynamicsreliability evaluationscenario predictionsustainable development
万方数据
维普
