高铁对民航运输需求影响的预测方法探讨——基于20个国际性综合交通枢纽城市的实证研究
Research on Predicting Methods for the Influence of High-speed Rail on Civil Aviation Transport——An Empirical Research Based on 20 International Integrated Transportation Hub Cities
李昊燃1
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航科学技术研究院,北京 100028
- 折叠
摘要
研究高铁开通对民航运输需求影响,是科学开展民航运输需求预测、编制行业发展规划的重要基础,也是航空公司、机场企业等行业主体谋划发展的重要依据.本文着眼于研究高铁开通对沿线民航旅客运输量增速的影响程度,从宏观层面筛选影响因素,形成高铁开通后民航旅客运输量增速预测模型,并基于全国20个国际性综合交通枢纽城市间线路予以实证验证,为研究高铁对民航影响提供新的思路.
Abstract
The study on the impact of high-speed rail on civil aviation transport demand is an important support for scientific civil aviation transport demand forecast and industry development planning,and also an important basis for airlines,airport enterprises and other industry players to plan their development.This paper studies the impact of high-speed rail on the growth of civil aviation passenger transport volume along the line,establishes a prediction modef for civil aviation passenger transport volume growth following the launch of high-speed rail service,and makes the empirical verification based on 20 international comprehensive transportion hub cities across China,so as to provide new ideas for studying the impact fo high-speed rail on civil aviation.
关键词
民航运输/高铁/市场竞争影响/国际性综合交通枢纽城市Key words
civil aviation transportation/high-speed rail/influence of market competition/international integrated transportation hub city引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国民航科学技术研究院基本科研业务费专项(X232060302552)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据