Population Aging,New Quality Productive Forces and High Quality Development of Economy
The relationship between population aging and growth is at the core of modernization of a huge population.Demographic change characterized by rising longevity and declining fertility has become the'new normal'of China's population development.Accelerating the development of new quality productive forces,as stressed by President Xi Jinping,is expected to act as a proactive national strategy in response to population aging by cultivating new growth drivers.This paper develops an endogenous growth model with learning by doing to analyze the impact of demographic change on growth,with an emphasis on technological innovation and human capital investment in coping with negative growth effects of population aging.Simulation results show that rising longevity has a positive effect on labor productivity and growth through increasing life-cycle savings and AI density.Even though declining fertility encourages human capital investment and increases AI density,its direct negative growth effect outweighs indirect positive labor productivity effect,generating an overall negative growth effect.We further investigate the fertility and growth effects of childcare subsidy policy.Our results highlight the theoretical and empirical values of new quality productive forces theory in the studies of population development,and provide a theoretical framework to high-quality development in the stage of population aging.
Life ExpectancyFertility RateNew Quality Productive ForcesLearning by DoingEconomic Growth
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