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多情景下珠江三角洲地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响预测

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原文链接
  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
土地资源的有序开发是区域可持续发展的基础，针对未来不同情景下土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务的影响进行科学评估与预测，可以为城市可持续发展规划提供科学参考。以珠江三角洲(珠三角)地区为研究区域，采用PLUS模型模拟不同情景下土地利用变化，结合InVEST模型对各情景下产水量、土壤保持量、生境质量、碳储量和水质净化服务及其变化进行预测，构建综合生态系统服务指数从空间上反映各生态系统服务供给量，分析2040 年不同情景下土地利用变化对生态系统服务的综合影响。结果表明:(1)PLUS模型模拟精度较高，可用于合理预测珠三角土地利用变化。(2)在自然发展情景下，仅土壤保持服务供给水平得到提高;在城市发展情景下，除水质净化服务损失严重外，其他服务供给损失变化与自然发展情景相似;在生态保护情景下，生境质量和碳储量提升幅度最大，而产水量下降幅度最大;在可持续发展情景下，水质净化能力损失最严重。(3)2040 年不同情景下珠三角综合生态系统服务指数空间分布格局相似，与 2020 年相比，生态系统服务总体水平将有所提高，但整体上预测平均值较低。该研究可为未来珠三角土地利用规划提供参考建议，为协调土地利用与生态保护管理提供新思路。
Prediction of the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service in the Pearl River Delta under Different Sce-narios
The orderly development of land resources is fundamental to achieving sustainable regional development.Scien-tific assessment and prediction of the impacts of land use changes on regional ecosystem services under different scenarios in the future can provide valuable guidance for sustainable urban planning.Taking the Pearl River Delta(PRD)urban ag-glomeration as the study area,the PLUS model was used to simulate land use changes under different scenarios.The re-sults combined with the InVEST model were used to predict the changes in water yield,soil conservation,habitat quality,carbon storage,and water purification services under different scenarios.Subsequently,a comprehensive index for ecosys-tem services was constructed to spatially reflect the supply of ecosystem services.Finally,the comprehensive impacts of fu-ture land use changes on ecosystem services were analyzed under different scenarios in 2040.The results show that:(1)The PLUS model exhibits high simulation accuracy and can reasonably predict land use changes in the PRD.(2)Under the natural development scenario,only the level of soil conservation service provision increases;under the urban develop-ment scenario,there will be a similar loss in service provision as the natural development scenario,except for a severe loss of water purification services;under the ecological protection scenario,it shows the greatest increase in habitat quality and carbon stocks,but the greatest decrease in water production;and under the sustainable development scenario,it shows the greatest loss of water purification capacity.(3)The spatial distribution patterns of the composite ecosystem service indices in the PRD in 2040 to be similar across all the different scenarios.The overall level of ecosystem services is projected to in-crease compared with that in 2020,but the overall projected mean value is lower.This study can provide practical suggestions for future land use planning in the PRD and new insights for coordinating land use management and ecological protection.

land use simulationecosystem servicesPLUS modelInVEST modelPearl River Delta urban agglomera-tion

陈绮桐、林锦耀

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广州大学地理科学与遥感学院,广东 广州 510006

土地利用模拟 生态系统服务 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 珠江三角洲城市群

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金广东省基础与应用基础研究基金青年提升项目广东省哲学社会科学规划学科共建项目

23YJCZH1252023A1515030300GD23XSH11

2024

10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2023.0645

生态与农村环境学报
环境保护总局南京环境科学研究所

生态与农村环境学报

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.248
ISSN：1673-4831
年,卷(期)：2024.40(5)
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