现代农业研究2024,Vol.30Issue(11) :8-15.

甘肃省脱贫县经济韧性演化特征研究——基于DSSM模型的实证分析

Evolution Characteristics of Economic Resilience in Former Poverty Counties in Gansu Province-Empirical Analysis Based on DSSM

马慧莉 夏雷雨 王冉
现代农业研究2024,Vol.30Issue(11) :8-15.

甘肃省脱贫县经济韧性演化特征研究——基于DSSM模型的实证分析

Evolution Characteristics of Economic Resilience in Former Poverty Counties in Gansu Province-Empirical Analysis Based on DSSM

马慧莉 1夏雷雨 1王冉1
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作者信息

  • 1. 西北师范大学商学院 甘肃,兰州 730070
  • 折叠

摘要

乡村振兴作为民族复兴的一项重大任务,是我国向共同富裕迈出的重要一步.甘肃省作为全国脱贫攻坚任务最重的省份,脱贫县仍然存在较高的返贫风险.为巩固脱贫攻坚成果并有效衔接乡村振兴战略,对脱贫县可持续发展能力进行动态监测有着重要意义.文章以甘肃省75个脱贫县作为研究对象,通过测度2010-2021年间甘肃省脱贫县经济韧性,使用相似系数将脱贫县经济韧性变化划分为两个阶段,同时使用动态偏离份额分析模型(DSSM)分析精准脱贫政策落实前后脱贫县竞争力分量变化情况,从时间和空间两个角度深入研究精准脱贫政策落实前后脱贫县经济韧性及竞争力分量变化情况得到其演化特征.结果发现:(1)甘肃省脱贫县经济韧性随着社会经济发展呈现稳步上升的趋势.(2)精准脱贫政策对于脱贫县的经济韧性结构有正向作用.(3)精准脱贫政策对于脱贫县经济韧性竞争力水平有着抑制作用.(4)分批次、分地区脱贫县经济韧性发展规律相似.(5)精准脱贫政策落实前后除转型能力基本保持不变外,其余两者在不同阶段呈现不同的特点.

Abstract

Rural revitalization,as a major task of national rejuvenation,is an important step towards common prosperity in China.Gansu Province is the province with the heaviest task of poverty alleviation in the country,still has a high risk of returning to poverty.In order to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively link up the rural revitalization strategy,it is of great significance to dynamically monitor the sustainable development capacity of the counties.Taking 75 former poverty counties in Gansu Province as the research object,this paper measures the economic resilience of the counties from 2010 to 2021.Using similar coefficient of former poverty counties economic resilience is divided into two stages,at the same time using dynamic Dynamic Shift-share Analysis Model(DSSM)analysis of poverty policy before and after the implementation of former poverty counties competitiveness component changes,from the perspective of time and space two further study of precision poverty policy implementation before and after the county economic resilience and competitiveness component change its evolution characteristics.The results show that:(1)The economic resilience of the former poverty counties in Gansu shows a steady upward trend along with the social and economic development.(2)Targeted poverty alleviation policies have a positive effect on the economic resilience structure of former poverty counties.(3)Targeted poverty alleviation policies have a restraining effect on the economic resilience and competitiveness level of former poverty counties.(4)The law of economic resilience of former poverty counties in batches and regions is similar.(5)Before and after the implementation of the targeted poverty alleviation policy,except that the transformation capacity is basically unchanged,the other two show different characteristics at different stages.

关键词

脱贫县/经济韧性/动态偏离份额分析模型/精准脱贫政策

Key words

former poverty counties/economic resilience/Dynamic Shift-share Analysis Model/targeted poverty reduction

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出版年

2024
现代农业研究
黑龙江省科学技术情报研究所

现代农业研究

影响因子:0.166
ISSN:2096-1073
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