首页|玉米完全成本保险对农户玉米种植面积的影响研究——基于内蒙古试点的准自然实验

玉米完全成本保险对农户玉米种植面积的影响研究——基于内蒙古试点的准自然实验

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随着中国农业农村现代化进程的加速,适度规模经营已成为关键的发展策略.土地流转作为实现规模化经营的重要手段,其效率直接影响到农业的集约化和现代化进程.近年来,土地流转价格不断攀升,从2011年的196.18 元/亩上升到2022年的352.04 元/亩,涨幅高达79%,且土地成本已占到玉米每亩种植成本的40%.玉米完全成本保险政策的实施,旨在确保种粮农户的收益稳定,并增强整体的粮食安全保障能力.为了切实保障农户的种植收益,关键在于激励农户增加对土地等关键生产要素的投入.购买该保险后,农户更有动力扩大玉米等主粮作物的种植面积,这对于提升粮食安全保障能力尤为重要.本文基于内蒙古玉米主产区通辽市和鄂尔多斯市400多户农户的调研数据,利用Heckman两阶段模型探讨了玉米完全成本保险对农户是否扩大种植规模及玉米种植面积的潜在影响.研究发现,该保险能够扩大农户的种植规模,并且与玉米种植面积的扩大存在正向关系.即使将核心解释变量"是否购买保险"替换为"上一年保险赔付金额",这一结论也通过了稳健性检验.基于以上研究结论,本文建议政府和保险公司进一步推广和完善玉米完全成本农业保险,将其作为激励农户参与土地流转、促进农业规模化经营的有效工具,从而为农业现代化提供坚实的风险管理支持.
Study on the Impact of Corn Complete Cost Insurance on Farmers'Corn Planting Area-A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Pilot in Inner Mongolia
With the acceleration of China's agricultural and rural modernization process,moderate scale management has become a key development strategy.As an important means to realize large-scale operation,the efficiency of land transfer directly affects the intensification and modernization of agriculture.In recent years,the price of land transfer has been rising,from 196.18 yuan/mu in 2011 to 352.04 yuan/mu in 2022,an increase of 79%,and the cost of land has accounted for 40%of the planting cost of corn per mu.The implementation of the corn full cost insurance policy aims to ensure the stability of the income of grain farmers and enhance the overall food security capacity.In order to effectively protect farmers'planting income,the key is to encourage farmers to increase investment in key production factors such as land.After purchasing the insurance,farmers are more motivated to expand the planting area of staple crops such as corn,which is particularly important for improving food security.Based on the survey data of more than 400 farmers in Tongliao city and Ordos city,the main corn producing areas in Inner Mongolia,this paper uses the Heckman two-stage model to explore the potential impact of corn full cost insurance on farmers'expansion of planting scale and corn planting area.The study found that the insurance can expand the planting scale of farmers and has a positive relationship with the expansion of corn planting area.Even if the core explanatory variable'whether to buy insurance'is replaced by'the amount of insurance compensation in the previous year',this conclusion has passed the robustness test.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper suggests that the government and insurance companies should further promote and improve corn full cost agricultural insurance as an effective tool to encourage farmers to participate in land transfer and promote large-scale agricultural management,so as to provide solid risk management support for agricultural modernization.

corn full cost insuranceland transferlarge-scale operationHeckman two-stage model

程静梅、赵元凤

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内蒙古农业大学 内蒙古,呼和浩特 010000

玉米完全成本保险 土地流转 规模化经营 Heckman两阶段模型

2025

现代农业研究
黑龙江省科学技术情报研究所

现代农业研究

影响因子:0.166
ISSN:2096-1073
年,卷(期):2025.31(2)