Research on geological hazard risk based on time and scale probability
Based on a 1∶50000 geological hazard risk survey,this article conducts a risk study on geological hazards in Qingtang-Laicun,Ningdu County with two calculation methods:time probability and scale probability.The results show that 40％of landslides with an area greater than 100 m2do not slide when the daily rainfall reaches 50 mm,i.e.,60％of land-slides occure;that 36％of landslides with an area greater than 1000 m2do not slide while the daily rainfall reaches 84 mm,i.e.,64％of landslides occur;the rainfall threshold for landslides exceeding 10000 m2set at 100 mm.The probability of landslides greater than 100 m2,1000 m2,and 10000m2is 0.783,0.134,and 0.033,respectively.The research area is divid-ed into extremely high risk areas,high risk areas,medium risk areas,and low risk areas based on the susceptibility assess-ment,combined with rainfall conditions with 10-year,20-year,50-year,and 100-year return periods,or earthquake condi-tions.The research results will provide a scientific basis for the construction of new urbanization,disaster prevention,and the formulation of disaster prevention plans in the region.
geological hazardshazard studiesLaicun-Qingtangupper reaches of Ganjiang River
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