The multiple imputation method was used to reconstruct the 63-year climate data series around Moutai Distillery,and variation evaluation,sliding t-test,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were carried out.The results show that the data obtained by multiple imputation method can pro-vide reference for research on actual climate,and median imputation is superior to mean imputation in stability.In the past 63 years,the average tem-perature around Moutai Distillery increased by 0.20℃ per 10 years.In the next 14 years,there will be a period of fluctuating temperature decline,which is conducive to the quality stability of Moutai Liquor.The cumulative precipitation and average humidity decreased by 40.2 mm to 41.8 mm and 0.6％per 10 years,respectively.In the next 10 to 13 years,there will be a period of fluctuating precipitation decline,which is not conducive to the production of Moutai Liquor.The average wind speed decreased by 0.10 m/s per 10 years.In the next 11 years,there will be a period of fluctuat-ing wind speed decline,but the change range is small,having little effect on the production of Moutai Liquor.
关键词
多重插补方法/茅台酒生产/气象条件变异性/时间序列分析
Key words
multiple imputation method/Moutai Liquor production/variation of meteorological conditions/time series analysis
维普
万方数据