The Trend,Characteristics and Stages of China's Negative Population Growth:A Simulation Prediction Based on the Laws of Population Change
In 2022,China experienced a negative population growth for the first time,marking a change in population trend:the end of a long period of population growth and the beginning of a period of negative popu-lation growth.This kind of negative population growth is endogenous,which is a long-term change driven by the internal law of population.According to the law of inertia change and the law of long-wave change of popu-lation,three scenarios of fertility change are set,that is,the fertility rate will rise back to the replacement lev-el or above in 2050,2080 and 2100,and the total population change of China is simulated and predicted.The results show that the total population of China presents a negative growth trend,with the characteristics of"slow-rapid-slow".The process of negative population growth consists of two stages:the first stage is the coex-istence period of low fertility and negative population growth,the duration of which is determined by the eco-nomic and social development environment;The second stage is the period of inertia reduction,the duration of which is determined by the age structure of the population.The later the low fertility rate returns to replace-ment level,the greater the population decline,the deeper degree of aging.The projections also suggest that if the fertility rate rises to replacement level or above,the age structure of the population will normalize.There-fore,facing the reality that China's population has entered a long decline process,it is necessary and benefi-cial to promote the fertility rate to rise to the replacement level as soon as possible to keep the total population stable and the population structure going to normal.
low fertility ratenegative population growthnegative population inertia growthpopulation simu-lation projection
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