Early Warning Model and Application of Floating Population Unemployment Risk
Based on the macro and micro data from 2010 to 2018 and six dimensions of individual characteris-tics,family characteristics,employment characteristics,labor supply and demand,macroeconomic indicators,employment services and social security,this paper constructs a early risk warning model of the unemployment of floating population based on BP algorithm,and analyzes the unemployment risk of floating population na-tionwide and in various regions.On this basis,the future unemployment rate of floating population is predic-ted.The results show that the unemployment risk of floating population presents an increasing trend over time,but there is no serious warning.From the perspective of different regions,the unemployment risk in the east-ern,central and western regions increases successively,which is closely related to the quality of floating popu-lation and local economic and social environment in each region.The national and regional floating population unemployment rate will continue to maintain a slow and fluctuating upward trend in the forecast period,and will reach two unemployment peaks in 2020 and 2027,and the floating population unemployment rate will gradually expand over time between the eastern and western regions.
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万方数据
