The Impact of Family Size Shrinkage on Urban Economic Development:A Study Based on China's Urban Panel Data from 2010 to 2020
The family is the"cell"of society,the basic unit of living for the people and the basic unit of social governance.The results of the seventh national census show that in 2020,the average household size in China fell below 3 for the first time,and the miniaturization of household size has become one of the im-portant demographic characteristics in China.This article takes 287 cities at prefecture level and above in China as the research object,and uses panel fixed effects model and threshold effects model to analyze the impact of changes in household size on urban economic development from 2010 to 2020.It is found that,firstly,the regression results of the national sample show a co-directional relationship between household size and urban economic level represented by per capita GDP,and this relationship exhibits heterogeneity among cities in different regions and at different population growth rates;The intermediary effect results show that the contraction of household size hinders urban economic development through two paths:inhibiting ur-ban population growth and increasing the burden of urban elderly care;Finally,the threshold effect results show that only when the family size decreases to a certain extent,its role in economic development gradually shifts from"promoting"to"inhibiting",and as the family size further decreases,this inhibitory effect on the economy will further increase.
family sizeurban economythreshold effectpopulation growthelderly-care burden
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
