摘要
近半个世纪以来全球和中国的人口形势都发生了巨大变化,运用科学而简明的指标体系评价人口高质量发展状况及趋势有利于全球共同科学应对人口新常态对社会经济产生的巨大影响.在中国式现代化语境中,人口高质量发展的基本理论内涵是指人口总量、素质、结构和分布等要素有力支撑现代化发展和有助于实现人类自身的全面发展.运用专家咨询法和熵权法,从人口现代化发展和人的全面发展2 个维度、5 个分维度共选择 12 个指标构建人口高质量发展指数.实证研究显示人口素质、人口经济发展、人口生活质量、人口宜居环境、全民共享发展的最终权重系数分别为 0.398 9、0.299 6、0.102 8、0.130 5 和0.068 2.据此对世界有数据可得的国家和地区人口高质量发展情况进行测算,结果爱尔兰得分排名第一,中国排名第四十六.人口高质量发展指数均值由高到低依次为欧洲、大洋洲、北美洲、南美洲、亚洲和非洲.发达国家的人口高质量发展水平普遍高于发展中国家和最不发达国家.研究构建的人口高质量指数与既有相关国际指标具有一定的区分度,体现了人口高质量发展方面中国开放式的自主话语体系.世界人口高质量发展区域失衡与存在差异的关键影响因素仍然是经济发展水平.人口素质和人口经济发展是我国人口高质量发展的相对优势所在.
Abstract
In the past half century,the population situation of both the world and China has undergone tremendous changes.The use of a scientific and concise indicator system to evaluate the high-quality develop-ment status and trends of the population is necessary for China and the world to jointly respond to the huge social and economic impact brought by the new normal population situation.In the context of the development of Chinese path to modernization,the basic theoretical connotation of high-quality population refers to the total amount,quality,structure and distribution of population and other factors that strongly support the develop-ment of modernization and realize the overall development of mankind itself.The study uses expert consulta-tion and entropy weighting methods to construct a high-quality population development index from two dimen-sions:population modernization development and comprehensive human development,and five sub dimen-sions,a total of 12 indicators,are selected to construct the high-quality population development index.Empir-ical research shows that the final weight coefficients for population quality,population economic development,quality of life,livable environment,and shared development for all are 0.398 9,0.299 6,0.102 8,0.130 5,and 0.068 2 respectively.Based on this,the study calculates the high-quality population develop-ment of countries and regions with available data worldwide,resulting with Ireland ranking first and China ranking the 46th.The average population quality development index from high to low is Europe,Oceania,North America,South America,Asia and Africa.The level of high-quality population development in devel-oped countries is generally higher than that in developing countries and the least developed countries.The study believes that the constructed population quality index has a certain degree of differentiation from existing international related indicators,reflecting the independent discourse of population quality and Chinese path to modernization.The key issue of regional imbalance in the high-quality development of the world's population remains the economic problem.The population quality and population economic development are the relative advantages of China's high-quality population development.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据