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中美两国的经贸战略竞争关系与历史镜鉴

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2023年11月15日中美元首峰会圆满落幕,双方在政治外交、人文交流、全球治理、军事安全等方面达成了共识,也向世界传出了积极的信号.虽然今后两年将是中美关系缓和的关键之年,但我们认为,美国对华构建的"小院高墙"不会撤去,在高科技领域对华限制仍会继续,那么美国与西方的选择性是否致命,中国是否能够破局,关系到百年未有之大变局下,守成大国与崛起大国战略竞争的前途.如今,美国主要是从经济安全的角度管控风险,摆脱重要供应链对中国的依赖,但同时又要维持地区间的稳定关系,即"去风险化",它既有选择性的合作,又有选择性的"脱钩".对此,我们不仅要加快"卡脖子"技术上的突破,与美国保持尽可能多的经贸关系,加强与欧洲国家以及日韩的经贸合作,而且,更重要的是要形成两条腿走路的科技创新之路,增强经济安全,维护中国的全球利益.
China-United States Economic and Trade Relations and Historical Reflections
On November 15th,the China-US president summit ended with establishment of va-rious commonsense about diplomatic policy,cultural communication,global governance,and mili-tary security.Although the two successive years are the most crucial years for the China-U.S.rela-tionship,we believe US will not withdraw its"high wall in small courtyard",and will keep astricting Chinese high technology field.The issues whether selection of US and the western is disastrous and whether China can breakthrough relates to prospect of great power competition between conventional large country and emerging large country.This period will also be an important period for the world to profoundly reform under high uncertainty and instability.Whether the choice of the United States and the West is fatal,and whether or not China is able to break the stalemate is related to the future of the strategic competition between the established powers and the rising powers under the undergo-ing profound changes unseen in a century,as well as how the world is heading towards a crucial peri-od of profound changes in this highly uncertain and unstable situation.Historical experience shows that there have been successful cases of strategic decoupling of the US.Today,the West mainly manages and controls risks from the perspective of economic security,getting rid of the dependence of important supply chains on China,but at the same time maintaining stable relations between re-gions,the so-called"de-risking".In our opinion,it is nothing more than another way of beautifying and modifying decoupling.It is not only selective cooperation but also selective decoupling,and an attempt by which the United States tries to lead the world to the evil path of great power games,so as to achieve its own strategic goals and continue to maintain its hegemony.In this regard,we must re-spond in a scientific way to securing China's global interests and promote a bright and harmony fu-ture of win-win cooperation.

Sino-US decouplingde-riskingnational securityJapan-US trade

佟家栋、姚星明、鞠欣

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南开大学经济学院 天津 300071

南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系 天津 300071

中美脱钩 去风险化 国家安全 日美贸易

国家社科基金重大项目

20ZDA052

2024

南京社会科学
南京市社会科学界联合会 南京市社会科学院 中共南京市委党校

南京社会科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.998
ISSN:1001-8263
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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