Study on the Resilience Evaluation and Improvement Path of China's New Energy Automobile Industry under Uncertain Conditions
At present,under the cross-impact of multiple factors such as the decline in global economic growth,frequent geopolitical conflicts,and increased international trade and financial risks,the uncertainty of the global economy has risen significantly,putting forward higher require-ments for the resilience of China's industrial development.The sudden emergence of China's"new three"represented by new energy vehicles in this context highlights the enhanced ability of China's economy to cope with uncertainties.This paper measures and simulates the resilience of China's new energy vehicle industry by constructing a stochastic CGE model.The results show that:First,China's automobile industry is in the lower reaches of the global value chain and the industrial chain is relatively safe,while the key to the new energy automobile industry showing stronger resilience is to control key core technologies;Second,the rural automobile consumption potential is greater,and the resilience potential is higher than that of the urban consumer market;Third,the macro closed test shows that to improve the resilience of the new energy automobile industry needs to integrate the role of the government and the market,and the policy simulation shows that the reduction and ex-emption of automobile purchase tax and price subsidies can help to improve domestic automobile con-sumption,while the tariff policy has a great impact on automobile exports.To this end,we should further consolidate and strengthen the leading role of technological innovation and industrial ecology of new energy vehicles,enhance the resilience of the new energy vehicle industry chain through technological innovation,deepen cross-field integration and innovation through policy guidance,and establish a technological innovation system through institutional advantages.At the same time,im-prove the quality of new energy vehicles to build internationally renowned brands.Further expand the international exchanges and cooperation of new energy vehicles,and continuously enhance the industrial resilience of China's new energy vehicles.
new energy vehicle industryindustrial resiliencestochastic CGE modelevaluation
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