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基于BN-DT下无人农场投资风险效益评估系统设计

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无人农场在提高生产效率和农产品质量方面具有巨大潜力.然而,投资过程必须面对各种不确定性和潜在的风险.该文基于无人农场基本结构及关键技术,提出一套基于贝叶斯和证据理论下投资风险评估方法,将各类评估指标视为证据源,并将其转化为信任度函数,通过文献总结及实地调研,针对无人农场投资风险评价体系,共筛选出14 个评价指标构建无人农场投资风险效益评估体系,并建立相应的数据库及评估系统,投资者可以根据自身情况选择感兴趣的评估指标,并输入相关数据,系统将基于证据理论进行计算并给出相应的风险效益评估报告.研究结果旨在为无人农场投资领域的决策者提供一个科学、全面的评估工具,促进农业生产的可持续发展与创新.
Design of a Risk-benefit Assessment System for Unmanned Farm Investments based on BN-DT
Unmanned farms have great potential to improve productivity and the quality of agricultural products.Howev-er,the investment process must face various uncertainties and potential risks.Based on the basic structure and key tech-nology of unmanned farms,this paper proposes a set of investment risk assessment methods based on Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer Theory,which takes various evaluation indicators as evidence sources and transforms them into trust functions.A total of 14 evaluation indexes were screened to construct the unmanned farms'investment risk benefit as-sessment system,and a corresponding database and evaluation system was established,so that investors could choose the evaluation indicators of interest according to their own situation and input the relevant data,and the system would calcu-late and give the corresponding risk-benefit evaluation report based on the evidence theory.The research results aim to provide a scientific and comprehensive evaluation tool for decision-makers in the field of unmanned farm investment,and promote the sustainable development and innovation of agricultural production..

unmanned farmstheory of evidencefuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodinvestment riskbayesian networks

王少营

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聊城职业技术学院,山东聊城 252000

无人农场 证据理论 模糊综合评价法 投资风险 贝叶斯网络

2023

农机使用与维修
农业部农机维修研究所

农机使用与维修

影响因子:0.105
ISSN:1002-2538
年,卷(期):2023.(12)
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