首页|基础教育在校生规模预测与教育资源配置的需求分析——以江苏省为例

基础教育在校生规模预测与教育资源配置的需求分析——以江苏省为例

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准确预测基础教育在校生规模是保障教育资源合理配置的重要前提.该文基于第七次全国人口普查数据,预测江苏省2021-2035年基础教育在校生规模,并对教育资源配置需求进行预测和分析.结果表明:1.预测期内基础教育在校生规模逐渐下降,到2035年降至638.83万—740.07万人,与2020年相比减少约38.78%-47.15%.学前、小学、初中、高中的在校生规模分别在2017年、2020年、2025年、2028年达到峰值;2.专任教师需求总量到2022年逐渐趋于饱和,基础教育事业费支出总额整体呈逐年递增趋势,到2035年支出总额约为2020年支出总额的1.81倍.据此,应提高学龄人口变动与教育资源配置的适切性,加强人口与教育数据的信息融合和趋势研判,探索低生育水平下教育资源整合、转化、提升的有效路径.
Prediction of the Basic Education Enrollment Scale and Analysis of the Demand for Educational Resource Allocation:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
Accurately predicting the scale of basic education enrollment is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring the ra-tional allocation of educational resources.Based on the data from the seventh national census,this study forecasts the scale of basic education enrollment in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2035 and analyzes the demand for educa-tional resource allocation.Results show that,firstly,the scale of basic education enrollment is projected to gradual-ly decline during the forecasting period,reaching between 6.3883 to 7.4007 million in 2035,representing a de-crease of approximately 38.78%to 47.15%compared to 2020.The enrollments for preschool,primary,junior high,and senior high school are expected to peak in 2017,2020,2025,and 2028 respectively.Secondly,the to-tal demand for full-time teachers is projected to gradually reach saturation by 2022.Overall,the total expenditure on basic education shows an increasing trend annually,reaching approximately 1.81 times the 2020 expenditure by 2035.Consequently,in order to enhance the appropriateness of responding to changes in the school-age population and the allocation of educational resources,there is a need to strengthen the integration of population and educa-tional data,analyze trends,and explore effective pathways for integrating,transforming,and enhancing educational resources under low fertility levels.

Jiangsu Provincebasic educationresource allocationschool-age population

李东庆、王本余、李昌庚、张边江

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南京晓庄学院发展规划处,江苏南京 211171

南京晓庄学院校长办公室,江苏南京 211171

南京晓庄学院旅游与社会管理学院,江苏南京 211171

江苏省 基础教育 教育资源配置 学龄人口

江苏省教育科学规划课题重点项目(2023)江苏省高教学会评估委员会项目

B/2023/01/105

2024

南京晓庄学院学报
南京晓庄学院

南京晓庄学院学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.201
ISSN:1009-7902
年,卷(期):2024.40(1)
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