Prediction of the Basic Education Enrollment Scale and Analysis of the Demand for Educational Resource Allocation:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
Accurately predicting the scale of basic education enrollment is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring the ra-tional allocation of educational resources.Based on the data from the seventh national census,this study forecasts the scale of basic education enrollment in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2035 and analyzes the demand for educa-tional resource allocation.Results show that,firstly,the scale of basic education enrollment is projected to gradual-ly decline during the forecasting period,reaching between 6.3883 to 7.4007 million in 2035,representing a de-crease of approximately 38.78%to 47.15%compared to 2020.The enrollments for preschool,primary,junior high,and senior high school are expected to peak in 2017,2020,2025,and 2028 respectively.Secondly,the to-tal demand for full-time teachers is projected to gradually reach saturation by 2022.Overall,the total expenditure on basic education shows an increasing trend annually,reaching approximately 1.81 times the 2020 expenditure by 2035.Consequently,in order to enhance the appropriateness of responding to changes in the school-age population and the allocation of educational resources,there is a need to strengthen the integration of population and educa-tional data,analyze trends,and explore effective pathways for integrating,transforming,and enhancing educational resources under low fertility levels.
Jiangsu Provincebasic educationresource allocationschool-age population