The forecast and influencing factors of total health expenditure during the 14th Five-Year Plan of Hunan Province
Based on the total health expenditure and related data of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2022,the article conducts a descriptive analysis of the total health expenditure and its financing structure while utilizing the GM(1,1)model and grey relation analysis to predict the total health expenditure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period along with an in-depth discussion of its influencing factors.The results indicate that the total expenditure of health and its ratio to GDP in Hunan Province are generally on the rise,and the ratio of total cost of health to GDP(7.23%)is expected to be close to the threshold value of the sustainability of total cost of health(8%).In terms of the financing structure,the proportion of personal health expenditure is still relatively high.Regarding the influencing factors,the GDP per capita and the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents are the primary factors contributing to the growth of total health expenditure,followed by the total number of visits to health institutions,hospital utilization rate,the number of health institutions,the aging rate and the level of urbanization.The impact of government financial capacity and health inputs on the total health expenditure is inelastic.The sustainability of health financing in Hunan Province faces significant challenges,and the rise in healthcare expenditure should be reasonably controlled from both the supply and demand sides.
total health expensesfunding structureGrey system theorypredictive researchinfluence factor
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