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承德市PM2.5和PM10浓度分布特征及与气象因子关系的研究

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文章利用承德市2016-2022年PM2.5和PM10的质量浓度数据以及同时段气象数据,分析了 PM2.5和PM10的年、季、月、日变化特征以及与相关气象因子的关系.结果表明:承德市颗粒物污染有明显的季节分布特征,近7年PM10和PM2.5的超标日数和超标率呈现出波动下降的趋势;PM10和PM2.5浓度峰值普遍出现在4、11月和12月;PM10和PM2.5日变化趋势基本一致,呈现出双峰双谷的变化规律,且PM10的这种日变化规律更为明显.各季节PM10与PM2.5浓度相关性显著,CO与PM10、PM2.5浓度的相关系数大于其他污染物;PM2.5和PM10浓度与日平均气温、日降水量、日平均风速、日最大风速、日照时数、最小能见度呈显著负相关;PM2.5与相对湿度呈显著正相关关系,PM10与相对湿度呈显著正相关关系.秋季降水日PM2.5和PM10的浓度分别较非降水日降低了 2.5 μg·m-3和18.3 μg·m-3;相对湿度达到75%左右时,PM2.5浓度值达到峰值;在一定范围内气温每升高1.0 ℃,PM2.5浓度下降0.37 μg·m-3.利用逐步回归的方法建立了承德地区PM2.5和PM10的预报模型,拟合优度分别在0.8和0.7以上,对模型进行检验,结果表明,在一定范围内模型效果较好,具有一定的实用性.
Distribution of PM2.5 and PM10 in Chengde City and its Relationship with Meteorological Factors
Absrtact Based on the PM2.5 and PM 10 concentration data and meteorological observation data in Chengde from 2016 to 2022,the annual,seasonal,monthly and daily variation characteristics of PM2.5 and PM 10 and their relationship with meteorological factors were analyzed.The results showed that the particulate matter pollution in Chengde City had obvious seasonal variation characteristics,and the number of pollution days and exceedence probability of PM10 and PM2.5 showed the double trends of fluctuating and decreasing.The peak concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 generally occurred in April,November and December.The daily variation trend of PM10 was similar to that of PM2.5,showing two peaks and two valleys,but was more obvious.There was a significant correlation between PM10 and PM2.5 concentration in each season,and the correlation coefficient between CO and PM10 and PM2.5 concentration was greater than others.The concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were negatively correlated with average daily temperature,daily precipitation,average daily wind speed,maximum daily wind speed,sunshine duration and minimum visibility.Both PM2.5 and PM10 were positively correlated with relative humidity.The concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 decreased by 2.5 μg·m-3 and 18.3 μg·m-3 respectively on precipitation days compared with non-precipitation days.When the relative humidity was about 75%,the concentration of PM2.5 reached its peak.Within a certain range,the PM2.5 concentration decreased by 0.37 μg·m-3 for every 1 ℃ increase in air temperature.The prediction models of PM2.5 and PM10in Chengde region were established by stepwise regression method,and the goodness of fit of two models were above 0.8 and 0.7,respectively.The test results showed that the prediction models had good effect and practicability within a certain range.

ChengdePM2.5PM10Meteorological factorsForecast model

王朋朋、薛思嘉、谭国明、张晓辉、周士茹

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承德市气象局,河北承德 067000

承德市 PM2.5 PM10 气象因子 预报模型

2024

内蒙古气象
内蒙古气象局 内蒙古气象气象学会

内蒙古气象

影响因子:0.206
ISSN:1005-8656
年,卷(期):2024.(1)