Refined Prediction of Sun Protection Index in Shenyang Based on Ryutu Mesoscale Model
Based on the gridded meteorological elements and radiation-related physical quantities hourly data of Ryutu mesoscale model,combined with the total radiation observation data of Shenyang,a refined prediction model for sun protection index was established using multiple regression method.The results indicated that:(1)In the output products of Ryutu Northeast model,the correlations between radiation factors and total solar radiation were better than those between meteorological factors and total solar radiation,especially the one between downward short-wave radiation flux on the surface and total solar radiation,as well as the one between surface heat flux and total solar radiation.(2)The seasonal prediction equation of total solar radiation was established using a comprehensive factor modeling approach.The equation diagnosis analysis showed that the spring and winter forecast models had the highest fitting degree and the strongest stability.The fitting degree of the annual forecast equation model was high,and that of summer and autumn models was slightly poor.(3)The prediction accuracy of sun protection index level in spring,summer,autumn and winter was 83.7％,87.4％,88％and 96.9％respectively.The prediction results were good,which meant this model could be applied to forecasting sun protection index.
万方数据
维普
