Risk Factor Analysis of Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer and Its Prediction Modeling
Objective To investigate the diagnostic value of ultrasound features of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC)on cervical lymph node metastasis,and to establish a prediction model for the column line diagram.Methods The correlation between ultrasound features,clinical features and cervical lymph node metastasis of 426 patients with PTC in the Department of Thyroid Oncology Surgery of the People's Hospital of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from February 2017 to 2019 was retrospectively analyzed.The patients were divided into metastatic group(n=183)and non-metastatic group(n=243)according to the presence or absence of lymph node metastasis in the central neck.Ultrasonographic features such as nodal size,aspect ratio,nodal location,internal components,nodal echogenicity,morphology,borders,blood flow signals,unilateral and bilateral nodules and calcifications,as well as general clinicopathologic features such as gender,age,smok-ing,Hashimoto,number of lesions and affected glands were observed between the two groups.The value of ul-trasound and clinicopathological features in the preoperative diagnosis of neck metastases in patients with PTC was analyzed.Results Central neck lymph node metastasis in PTC patients was associated with gender,age,number of lesions,affected cancerous glands,node size,morphology,borders,calcification and lesion size(P＜0.05).In addition to lesion size,age,nodal border,upper and lower diameter,and calcification were indepen-dent risk factors after multifactorial binary logistic regression analysis(P＜0.05);the results were incorporated into the prediction model and calibrated,and the predictive efficacy of the model in the modeling group(training set)was 0.67,and the AUC in the validation group(test set)was 0.68,which indicated that the model had good predictive efficacy.The predictive efficacy of the model was good.Conclusion Age＜55 years,vague nodal border,upper and lower diameters＞1 cm,and calcified foci are independent risk factors for the occur-rence of cervical central lymph node metastasis in PTC,and the combined prediction of cervical central lymph node metastasis in PTC has a high diagnostic value.
papillary thyroid carcinomaultrasoundcervical lymph node metastasisprediction model
万方数据
维普
