Analysis of risk factors and establishment of a risk prediction model for osteoporosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for osteoporosis in rheumatoid arthritis(RA)patients and establish a alignment diagram prediction model.Methods:A total of 283 RA patients were included,and they were randomly divided into a modeling group(n=226)and a validation group(n=57)in an 8∶2 ratio.Independent risk factors for osteoporosis in RA patients were analyzed,and a alignment diagram prediction model was established.The model was internally validated using Bootstrap,and external validation was performed on the validation group.The prediction model was evaluated using the ROC curve AUC and calibration curve.Results:Gender(P=0.046),age(P=0.016),disease duration(P=0.004),erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR)(P<0.001),and calcium ion(Ca2+)concentration(P=0.004)were independent risk factors for osteoporosis in RA patients(P<0.05).Based on these risk factors,a alignment diagram prediction model for RA-related osteoporosis was established.The calibration curve indicated that the predicted values in both the modeling and validation groups were in good agreement with the observed values.The AUC for the modeling group was 0.83 with 95%CI of 0.78-0.88,and for the validation group,it was 0.86(95%CI:0.78-0.88),demonstrating that the model had a good predictive performance.Conclusion:The alignment diagram prediction model based on age,gender,disease duration,ESR,and Ca2+effectively predicts the probability of osteoporosis in RA patients.
rheumatoid arthritisosteoporosisrisk factorsprediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
