Construction of a risk prediction model for late-onset sepsis in infants with very/extremely low birth weight
Objective:To investigate the risk prediction model of late-onset sepsis(LOS)in very/extremely low birth weight infants(VLBWI/ELBWI).Methods:579 infants admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected,of which 93 infants with LOS occurrence were set as LOS group and 486 infants without LOS occurrence were set as control group.The influencing factors of the occurrence of LOS in two groups were analyzed.Factors with P<0.05 were included in Logistic regression analysis,risk prediction model was estab-lished,and ROC curve was used to test the prediction effect of the model.Results:Four factors including birth weight,dura-tion of peripheral venous catheterization,fasting duration and history of early-onset sepsis(EOS)were included to construct the risk prediction model of LOS occurrence in VLBWI/ELBWI.The model formula was Y=-2.349-0.003×birth weight(g)+0.095×duration of peripheral venous catheter(d)+0.198×fasting duration(d)-3.075×EOS occurrence history.The area under ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.860,the maximum of the Jorden index was 0.597,the prediction sensitivity was 0.817,the specificity was 0.780,and the optimal critical value was 0.159.Conclusion:The constructed model has good prediction performance and can predict the occurrence of LOS in VLBWI/ELBWI.It can provide theoretical basis for medical staff to take early interventions as soon as possible.
very low birth weight infantextremely low birth weight infantlate-onset sepsisearly-onset sepsisrisk factorrisk prediction model
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