The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on World and China's Food Security:A Study of the Impact and Self-repair Mechanism
Russia and Ukraine both carry a big weight in global agricultural commodity market.The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Feb 2022 has caused great disturbance to the market in short term and generated negative impact on world food security.However,the global food price has re-turned to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict since July and August in 2022,which means global agricultural commodity market has completed self-repair.This paper reviews the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on agricultural commodity market and finds that the impact mechanism is dif-ferent from self-repair mechanism.For the impact mechanism,the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly stroked the export of Ukraine's old-season products and new-season production,What's more,it indi-rectly affected the market by triggering export restrictions of some exporting countries and through the transmission of fluctuations from energy market.For the self-repair mechanism,global agricultural com-modity market has maintained its inherent resilience under multilateral trading systems such as market access and trade facilitation.Price rise has generated"trade transfer effect"-stimulating production from other countries and suppressed demand.As a result,a new market equilibrium has been achieved.The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has an impact on China's grain and oil market,but the impact is dif-ferent among varieties.It has a greater impact on varieties with high linkage at home and abroad,such as corn,oil and oilseeds,while it has a smaller impact on varieties with low linkage,such as wheat and rice.To cope with such crisis,we need to rely on reserves in the short term,expand imports in the medi-um term,and increase domestic production in the long term.It is recommended to establish necessary and systematic capabilities in response to short-term supply shocks.We should strengthen confidence in international agricultural trade,deepen international cooperation in agricultural trade and investment,promote the construction of a diversified supply channels,and fully utilize domestic and international markets and resources to ensure national food security.
The Russia-Ukraine conflictFood securityTrade transfer effectMultilateral trading system
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