首页|气候变化对东南亚国家内部冲突的影响分析——以菲律宾棉兰老岛为例

气候变化对东南亚国家内部冲突的影响分析——以菲律宾棉兰老岛为例

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当前,全球正面临着气候变化带来的深刻挑战,然而气候变化与冲突之间的关系仍有待明晰.总体上,当地的脆弱性在气候变化与冲突之间发挥着传导效应,而气候变化特别是其引发的灾害,通过制造各类危机、为冲突方提供机会结构等方式,对冲突造成倍增效应.近年来,东南亚的部分国家和地区正在经历气候变化与冲突的叠加过程,菲律宾棉兰老岛的案例尤为典型.气候变化引发的短期和长期灾害,恶化当地的粮食安全、水安全,加剧原本存在的生态脆弱性和社会脆弱性.由此引发的粮食不安全、生计危机、流离失所等系列问题,既加剧冲突各方围绕资源的竞争,也为相关暴力组织提供机会结构,从而进一步推动冲突的发展.棉兰老岛的纵向冲突和横向冲突的持续和蔓延,为东南亚地区的气候治理敲响警钟.
Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Internal Conflicts in Southeast Asian Countries:A Case Study of Mindanao in the Philippines
Currently,the world is facing profound challenges resulted from climate change,but the relationship be-tween climate change and internal conflicts remains to be clarified.Overall,local vulnerability plays a mediating role be-tween climate change and internal conflicts,and climate change,especially the disasters it triggers,creates various crises and provides opportunity structures for conflicting parties,thereby amplifying the effects of conflicts.In recent years,some countries and regions in Southeast Asia have been experiencing a combinations of climate change and internal conflicts,with the case of Mindanao in the Philippines being a particularly sample.Short-term and long-term disasters caused by climate change have worsened local food and water security,exacerbating the existing ecological and social vulnerabilities.The re-sulting issues such as food insecurity,livelihood crises,and displacement not only intensify the competition for resources a-mong conflicting parties,but also provide an opportunity for related violent organizations,thus further promoting the devel-opment of internal conflicts.The continuous and widespread vertical and horizontal conflicts in Mindanao serve as a warning for climate change governance in Southeast Asian region.

climate changeconflictSoutheast AsiaMindanaothe Philippines

李捷、王思嘉、谢诗瑶

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兰州大学西北少数民族研究中心,甘肃兰州 730000

兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,甘肃兰州 730000

气候变化 冲突 东南亚 棉兰老岛 菲律宾

2024

南洋问题研究
厦门大学南洋研究院

南洋问题研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.443
ISSN:1003-9856
年,卷(期):2024.(4)