首页|俄罗斯与阿富汗塔利班关系的嬗变进程及发展前景

俄罗斯与阿富汗塔利班关系的嬗变进程及发展前景

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基于地缘政治、塔利班实力消长等因素的考量,俄罗斯对阿富汗塔利班的政策一再进行调整,从保持中立到反对塔利班,再到与其有限互动,直至塔利班重新执政以来与其保持建设性接触,这些政策调整直接影响着俄塔关系的走向.2021 年 8 月塔利班重新执政以来,俄罗斯对阿富汗政策的新取向日渐形成,集中体现在三个方面,即俄罗斯主动与阿富汗各方政治势力保持直接接触;致力于打造广泛包容的区域对话模式——"莫斯科模式";协调、借助第三方力量应对阿富汗变局.其中,"莫斯科模式"似乎表明俄罗斯力争在阿富汗和平、和解与重建进程中发挥主导作用,进而提升自身的地缘政治影响力.近年来俄阿关系发展呈现向好迹象,但遭受多重因素困扰.由于俄罗斯对阿富汗的援助能力较为有限,加之美俄战略竞争加剧以及俄乌冲突的影响,俄塔关系的不确定性在日渐增大,发展前景不容乐观.
Views on the Evolution Process and Development Prospects of the Relations Between Russia and Afghan Taliban
Based on factors such as geopolitics and thechanging strength of the Taliban,Russia has repeatedly adjusted its policy and strategy toward the Taliban,from maintaining neutrality to opposing the Taliban,and then to engaging and cooperating with the Taliban,which directly affects the Russian-Taliban relations.Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan on August 2021,Russia's adjusted polices toward Afghanistan has gradually taken shape,which are mainly reflected in three aspects:Russia takes the initiative to maintain direct contacts with all parties in Afghanistan;Russia is committed to building a broad and inclusive mode of regional dialogue—The Moscow Format;Russia strives to coordinate and promote the role of third parties in Afghanistan.Among them,strengthening the role of The Moscow Format seems to indicate that Russia aims to play a leading role in the process of national reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan in order to rebuild its geopolitical influence in the region.The full U.S.troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power provide new strategic opportunities for the development of Russian-Taliban relations.However,since Russia's assistance to Afghanistan is relatively limited,coupled with the intensification of US-Russia strategic competition and the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Russia is increasingly fail to step up its deep involvement in Afghanistan,and the uncertainty of Russian-Taliban relations is also increasing accordingly.

马勇、邱实

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北京师范大学人文与社会科学高等研究院/政府管理学院

商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院

北京经济管理职业学院马克思主义学院

俄罗斯 外交政策 阿富汗塔利班 "莫斯科模式"

2024

南亚研究季刊
四川大学南亚研究所

南亚研究季刊

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.62
ISSN:1004-1508
年,卷(期):2024.(3)