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边境安全风险场景中弱信号的刻画研究

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[目的/意义]在充满不确定性和对抗性的边境安全环境中,传统的基于强信号而展开的情报分析范式亟须补充和优化,文章旨在通过对边境安全风险场景中弱信号的刻画研究,服务边境安全风险的感知和响应.[方法/过程]通过调查研究并借助弱信号相关理论,将风险弱信号划分为4 个维度和3 个阶段.以风险弱信号的意义呈现与用户感知作为切入点,在初始阶段通过地平线扫描和数据融合察觉异常信号,在发展阶段采用4 种刻画模式对弱信号进行意义构建,在突变阶段通过对前期刻画成果持续构建、证实证伪,辅助决策者对风险场景的预判.[结果/结论]通过情报刻画,挖掘弱信号间的联系,构建弱信号的意义,在弱信号转变为强信号之前,聚焦风险可能发生的场景,辅助决策者对风险的感知和响应.
Research on the Exploitation of Weak Signals in Border Security Risk Scenarios
[Purpose/significance]In the uncertain and adversarial border security environment,the traditional information a-nalysis paradigm based on strong signals urgently needs to be complemented and optimized.By exploiting weak signals,it promotes the change of the traditional paradigm of information analysis and serves the perception and response to the border security risk.[Method/process]Through research and with the help of related theories about weak signals,the weak signal is categorized into four dimensions and three stages.Taking the meaning representation and user perception of weak signals as the starting point,we use horizon scanning and data fusion to perceive anomalous signals at the initial stage,and adopt the four modes of exploitation to construct meanings of weak signals during the development stage,and in the mutation stage,we assist the decision makers to pre-dict the risk scenarios by continuously exploiting the results of the previous exploitation and eliminating the falsification.[Result/conclusion]Through active exploitation,it can dig out the connection between weak signals,construct the meaning of weak sig-nals,and focus on the possible risk scenarios before the weak signals are transformed into strong signals,so as to assist decision makers in perceiving and responding to risks.

information of border securityweak signalmeaning constructioninformation exploitationrisk prediction

陶冶、唐超

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中国人民警察大学研究生院,河北 廊坊 065000

中国人民警察大学智慧警务学院,河北 廊坊 065000

边境安全情报 弱信号 意义构建 情报刻画 风险预判

2025

情报理论与实践
中国国防科学技术信息学会 中国兵器工业第二一零研究所

情报理论与实践

北大核心
影响因子:1.302
ISSN:1000-7490
年,卷(期):2025.48(1)