Risk analysis of bus traffic accidents based on N-K model and cusp mutation
In order to explore the risk coupling relationship in bus traffic accidents,this study analyzed the risk coupling relationship in bus traffic accidents from the perspectives of single-factor,two-factor and multi-factor,and the risk coupling hierarchical network model of bus traffic accidents was established.Based on the N-K model,the two-factor and multi-factor risk coupling metric model of bus traffic accidents was constructed,the occurence probability of different risk factor coupling and the value of risk coupling degree were obtained by taking 664 bus traffic accidents in China as examples and the bus traffic accident cusp mutation model was established.Finally,the risk state of bus traffic safety system was visualized through simulation.The results show that the greater the number of factors involved in risk coupling is,the greater the risk of bus traffic accidents is;human factors and road factors have strong coupling and cause the greatest risk in the risk coupling process,and therefore are the key factors affecting bus traffic safety.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
