The impact of the development of finance and its industry on economic growth:Empirical analysis based on VAR model1
Based on the perspective of financial development serves economic growth,this paper constructs two VAR models using time-series data from 1978 to 2022 on GDP,M2,social financing,stock transaction volume,bond transaction volume,futures transaction volume,and insurance premium.The two models adopt empirical analysis methods to examine the impact of financial development and its industries on economic growth.They mainly analyze the Granger causality,Johansen cointegration relationship,and impulse response function between each indicator and economic growth indicators.Through the analysis,it is found that financial development is a Granger cause of economic growth,while the development of financial industries is not a Granger cause of economic growth.Eeconomic development is influenced by itself,but also by changes in financial development and the development of financial industries.The impact of bond transaction volume,M2,insurance premium,and other factors is relatively large.Based on the analysis conclusions,we propose five suggestions:supervising currency circulation,smoothing financing channels,strengthening the adjustment and supervision of the stock market,expanding insurance business scope,and severely rectifying the bond and futures markets.
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万方数据
