摘要
基于金融发展服务于经济增长视角,构建两个VAR模型,选择1978年到2022年的GDP、M2、社会融资规模、股票成交额、债券成交额、期货成交额以及保险公司保费的时间面板数据分别实证分析了金融及其行业发展与经济增长的影响.主要分析了各指标与经济增长指标的Granger因果关系、Johansen协整关系以及脉冲响应函数等情况.通过分析发现,金融发展是经济增长的Granger原因,金融各行业发展均不是经济增长的Granger原因;经济发展受自身影响同时,金融及其行业发展变化对其也产生不小影响,债券成交额、M2、保险公司保费等影响较大.基于分析结论,提出了监管货币流通、畅通融通渠道、加强股票市场调整和监管、扩大保险业务范围、严厉整顿债券和期货市场等5条建议.
Abstract
Based on the perspective of financial development serves economic growth,this paper constructs two VAR models using time-series data from 1978 to 2022 on GDP,M2,social financing,stock transaction volume,bond transaction volume,futures transaction volume,and insurance premium.The two models adopt empirical analysis methods to examine the impact of financial development and its industries on economic growth.They mainly analyze the Granger causality,Johansen cointegration relationship,and impulse response function between each indicator and economic growth indicators.Through the analysis,it is found that financial development is a Granger cause of economic growth,while the development of financial industries is not a Granger cause of economic growth.Eeconomic development is influenced by itself,but also by changes in financial development and the development of financial industries.The impact of bond transaction volume,M2,insurance premium,and other factors is relatively large.Based on the analysis conclusions,we propose five suggestions:supervising currency circulation,smoothing financing channels,strengthening the adjustment and supervision of the stock market,expanding insurance business scope,and severely rectifying the bond and futures markets.
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万方数据