Objective To investigate the spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate in China,and to predict the perinatal mortality rate across the country.Methods Based on the perinatal mortality rates of 31 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities directly under the Central Government in 2021,and the data on total perinatal mortality rate in China in 2011-2020,the spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of perinatal mortality rate,and the GM(1,1)model was used to predict perinatal mortality rate.Results The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate in China in 2021 was positively correlated,and the local spatial autocorrela-tion analysis showed that an aggregation type of high-high correlation in Tibet Autonomous Region,with Hunan Province as a high-low aggregation area and Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Anhui provinces as low-low aggregation areas.The prediction re-sults of the GM(1,1)model showed that the perinatal mortality rates in 2021-2025 were 3.79‰,3.61‰,3.44‰,3.27‰,and 3.12‰,respectively.Conclusion The spatial distribution of perinatal mortality rate is uneven in China,and there is a downward trend in the temporal distribution.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the level of maternal and child health care and reduce re-gional differences.
维普
万方数据