Objective To establish a nomogram model for predicting blood transfusion within 14 d after simultaneous bila-teral total knee arthroplasty(SBTKA),and to provide a scientific basis for early clinical prevention and improvement of prognosis.Methods A total of 862 patients who underwent SBTKA in our hospital from January 1,2012 to December 31,2017 were en-rolled,among whom there were 539 patients in the non-transfusion group and 323 patients in the transfusion group.The univariate analysis and the multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for blood transfusion risk within 14 d after SBTKA,and these factors were used to establish a nomogram prediction model for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA.Results Age,hemoglobin(Hb),body mass index(BMI),andcourse of the disease were independent risk factors for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA.The predictive model established based on age,Hb,BMI,and course of the disease had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.652(95％CI=0.612-0.691).The calibration curve and the clinical decision curve showed that the model had a good predictive value.Conclusion The nomogram predictive model for blood transfusion within 14 d after SBTKA is established based on age,preoperative Hb,BMI,and course of the disease and has a certain guiding significance for timely identification of the population at a high risk of blood transfusion.
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