Projections of the 21st Century Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin Extreme Precipitation Events

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国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

外文摘要：Based on the 1961-1990 observed daily precipitation in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,and the HadCM3 model data for IPCC SRES A1B climate projections,the simulation capabilities of the BP-CCA downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate are assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA).In addition,future extreme precipitation indices in the middle and late 21st century are projected.The results show that simulation capability of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach,with 30％-100％ reduction of the relative errors of the climatological mean state of extreme precipitation indices.However,the downscaling results still show wetter winter and dryer summer than the observation.Under the SRES A1B emission scenario,frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase,and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation indices than for mean precipitation index; and in summer than in winter.Extreme precipitations in the middle and late 21st century are expected to increase by 14％ and 25％ respectively in winter,and by 24％ and 32％ respectively in summer.

外文关键词：

canonical correlation analysisBP-CCA downscalingextreme precipitationprojection

作者：

CUI Yan、JIANG Zhi-Hong、CHEN Wei-Lin、ZHANG Ruo-Yu

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作者单位：

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disater of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

基金：

National Natural Science FoundationNational Key Basic Research ProgramPriority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Edusation Institutions

项目编号：

408750582012CB955200

出版年：

2012

DOI：

10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00076

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806

ISSN：1674-9278

年,卷(期)：2012.3(2)

被引量2
参考文献量5