首页|Defining region-specific heatwave in China based on a novel concept of "avoidable mortality for each temperature unit decrease"
Defining region-specific heatwave in China based on a novel concept of "avoidable mortality for each temperature unit decrease"
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国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
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The distribution of temperature and temperature-health association varied largely across different regions in China,a region-specific defi-nition for heatwave was therefore needed.We collected the data on daily mortality,meteorological factors and air pollution in 84 Chinese cities during 2013-2016,which was divided into seven regions.Based on the association between daily maximum temperature and mortality in each city in a threshold distributed lag non-linear model,where the threshold was defined as the temperature corresponding to the lowest mortality risk,we calculated the number of deaths that could be avoided for 1℃decrease in maximum temperature under different thresholds,then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to generate regional results,in which the temperature with the highest avoidable mortality number for 1℃decrease was considered as the most appropriate heatwave definition.We observed an immediate detrimental effect of high temperature within three lag days.Our analysis suggested to use 29.5℃,31.5℃,29.0℃,31.5℃,30.0℃,and 28.5℃as the heatwave standard for east,north,northeast,central,south,and southwest region,with the avoidable mortality number of 1.54(95％Confidence interval(CI):0.88,2.19),0.55(95％CI:0.16,0.94),0.59(95％CI:0.32,0.86),1.14(95％CI:0.68,1.59),1.22(95％CI:0.54,1.90),and 0.78(95％CI:0.01,1.55),respectively,while the estimated number 0.19(95％CI:—0.02,0.40)in northwest region was not statistically significant.The concept of'avoidable mortality for 1℃decrease'was proposed to define the heatwave event,and varied maximum temperature between 28.5 and 31.5℃was suggested for region-specific heatwave definition in China.
HeatwaveMortality burdenDistributed lag non-linear model
LIU Jiang-Mei、AI Si-Qi、QI Jin-Lei、WANG Li-Jun、ZHOU Mai-Geng、WANG Chong-Jian、YIN Peng、LIN Hua-Liang
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National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,100050,China
Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,510080,China
Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,450000,China
We thank for the support by National Key R&D Program of ChinaNatural Science Foundation of Chinaand the Bill&Melinda Gates FoundationWe are grateful for all the staffs participated in data collection and management,as well as the anonymous reviewers
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
