首页|The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios:Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen,China

The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios:Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen,China

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The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5℃and 2℃.Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5℃warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2℃,but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day.Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China,and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks.Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming.We estimated that the 2℃warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5℃would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31％in Shenzhen city.Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights,with ambulance dispatches increased by 82％.Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts,particularly in the context of climate change.Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.

Climate changeCompound hot extremeParis agreementHuman healthMorbidity effect

HE Yi-Ling、DENG Shi-Zhou、HO Hung Chak、WANG Hui-Bin、CHEN Yang、Shakoor HAJAT、REN Chao、ZHOU Bai-Quan、CHENG Jian、Wenbiao HU、MA Wen-Jun、HUANG Cun-Rui

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School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,51000,China

Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai,200030,China

Department of Urban Planning and Design,University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China

State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing,100081,China

Department of Public Health,Environments and Society,London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine,London,WC1H 9SH,United Kingdom

Faculty of Architecture,University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Anhui Medical University,Hefei,230032,China

School of Public Health and Social Work,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,4059,Australia

Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,510399,China

School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,450001,China

Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health,Shanghai Meteorological Service,Shanghai,200030,China

Vanke School of Public Health,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

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This work was supported by the grant from National Key R&D Program of ChinaWe thank Prof.Adrian Barnett from Queensland University of Technology for valuable discussions on the manuscript

2018YFA0606200

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(5)
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