首页|Establishment and validation of health vulnerability and adaptation indices under extreme weather events on the basis of the 2016 flood in Anhui province,China

Establishment and validation of health vulnerability and adaptation indices under extreme weather events on the basis of the 2016 flood in Anhui province,China

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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Climate change could intensify extreme weather events,such as flooding,which amplifies the public health threat of waterborne diseases.Thus,assessing health vulnerability and adaptation(V&A)could facilitate nationally effective responses to extreme climate events.However,related studies are still negligible,and the assessment urgently needs to be validated with actual health data after extreme weather events.We established health V&A indices through literature review and factor analyses.Then,we separately mapped the spatial distribution of flood exposure,social and public health sensitivity,and adaptive capacity before the 2016 flood in Anhui province and compared it with post-flood diarrhea risks by using the geographic information system method to assess health vulnerability.Finally,we validated the indices by exploring the relationship between health V&A indices and post-flood diarrhea risks by using the quantile regression model.Results revealed that health V&A can be framed and categorized as key components of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity.The remarkable differences in the spatial distribution of health vulnerability were generally consistent with the demographic sensitivity,geographic flooding exposure,and post-flood diarrhea risks in Anhui.In addition,health V&A indices exerted significant positive impacts on infectious diarrhea post-flooding at all quan-tiles and were significant across different percentiles.Moreover,the impacts of flood exposure on total infectious diarrhea were high and continuous,whereas the impacts of sensitivity were not obvious in the flood's early stage(Coeff=0.643;p＜0.001)but high in the flood's middle(Coeff=0.997;p＜0.001)and late stages(Coeff=0.975;p＜0.001).However,the impacts of adaptive capacity were heterogeneous and high in the flood's early stage(Coeff=0.665;p＜0.001 at the 25th percentile)and late stage(Coeff=1.296;p＜0.001 at the 75th percentile)but were insignificant at the 50th percentile.This study contributed validated three-layered health V&A indices with 30 indicators and identified that the impacts of the key components on post-flood waterborne-disease risks are heterogeneous.For instance,local public health sensitivity and adaptive capacity are insufficient to reduce these risks in the long run.This study could be used to project population health risks after extreme weather events and thereby contributes to local government planning of health adaptation.

Climate changeClimate extreme eventsChinaDiarrheaFloodHealth vulnerability and adaptation

ZHONG Shuang、CHENG Qiu、HUANG Cun-Rui、WANG Zhe

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Center for Chinese Public Administration Research,School of Government,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,510275,China

Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health,Shanghai Meteorological Service,Shanghai,200030,China

Department of Health Policy & Management,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,510080,China

School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,450000,China

Public Health Emergency Center Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,102206,China

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This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Key R&D Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of Chinaand the Government Reform and Construction of Key Bases of Min-istry of Education

717741792018YFA06062007180420516JJD630011

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(5)
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