首页|Decadal changes of the intraseasonal oscillation during 1979-2016

Decadal changes of the intraseasonal oscillation during 1979-2016

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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The Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) is the cornerstone for 2-8-week subseasonal prediction.Understanding the decadal variation of the ISO is important for improving subseasonal prediction;however,there is still a gap in our knowledge of ISO dynamics.Here,we presented a method,an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of 11-year-sliding ISO evolution,to objectively detect decadal variation of the ISO originated from the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during 1979-2016.The results show that the properties of ISO have a notable decadal change since 1998 for both boreal summer and boreal winter seasons,mainly in its evolution rather than in its intensity at origin.During the pre-1998 epoch,the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO),was confined to the Indian Ocean;since 1998,however,it propagated northeastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) and the intraseasonal variability over the western North Pacific was significant enhanced.On the other hand,the boreal-winter ISO,usually known as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) shows minor changes in MC 'barrier effect'between the two epochs,and continuously propagates eastward across the MC.The MJO only shows suppressed activity over the central equatorial Pacific in the post-1998 epoch.These decadal changes are related to the eastern Pacific cooling during the 'global warming hiatus' period rather than to the four-decade global warming.Results here provide a set of potential precursors for foreseeing ISO propagation under different mean states.

Decadal variationIntraseasonal oscillationMadden-Julian oscillationBoreal summer intraseasonal oscillationGlobal warming hiatus

WU Nan、LI Ying、LI Juan、FENG Li-Cheng、LIU Fei

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Earth System Modeling and Climate Dynamics Research Center,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044,China

Shanghai ZhongChuan NERC-SDT Co.,Ltd,Shanghai,201114,China

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing,100081,China

Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing,100081,China

School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University,Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Zhuhai,519082,China

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their comments and suggestions which help improve this article.This work was supported jointly by Guangdong Major Project of BasNational Key Research and Development Programand the Natural Science Foundation of Chinaand the Natural Science Foundation of China

2020B03010300042018YFC15058024197510741576029

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(6)
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