首页|An extreme rainfall event in summer 2018 of Hami city in eastern Xinjiang,China

An extreme rainfall event in summer 2018 of Hami city in eastern Xinjiang,China

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
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Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions,but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years,causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses.A series of heavy rains that began on July 31st,2018,battered the Hami prefecture of eastern Xinjiang,China for four days.These rains sparked devastating floods,caused 20 deaths,eight missing,and the evacuation of about 5500 people.This study examines the extreme rainfall event in a historical context and explores the anthropogenic causes based on analysis of multiple datasets (i.e.,the observed daily data,the global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5),the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1,and the satellite cloud data) and several statistical techniques.Results show that this extraordinarily heavy rainfall was due mainly to the abnormal weather system (e.g.,the abnormal subtropical high) that transported abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea crossed the high mountains and formed extreme rainfall in Hami prefecture,causing the reservoir to break and form a flood event with treat loss,which is a typical example of a comprehensive analysis of the extreme rainfall event in summer in Northwest China.Also,the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) value was 1.00 when the 2018 July-August RX1day (11.52 mm) was marked as the threshold,supporting the claim of a significant anthropogenic influence on the risk of this extreme rainfall.The results offer insights into the variability of precipitation extremes in arid areas contributing to better manage water-related disasters.

Precipitation eventsNorthwest ChinaCMIP5Fraction of attributable riskAttribution analysis

ZOU Shan、DUAN Wei-Li、Nikolaos CHRISTIDIS、Daniel NOVER、ABUDUWAILI Jilili、Philippe De MAEYER、Tim Van De VOORDE

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College of Resource and Environment Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi,830046,China

State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,830011,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China

Department of Geography,Ghent University,Ghent,9000,Belgium

Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,830011,China

Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Ghent

Met Office Hadley Centre,Exeter,EX13PB,UK

Department of Engineering,University of California-Merced,Merced,CA,95343,USA

Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Ghent,9000,Belgium

Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Urumqi,830011,China

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Project of Tianshan Innovation Team in XinjiangChinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship InitiativeNikolaos CHRISTIDIS was sup-ported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by Department for Business,Energy an

2021130502017VCA0002

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(6)
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