首页|Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES

Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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The simulation of global and regional energy system transition and its potential mitigation cost could intuitively reflect the need for earlier climate mitigation actions.To explore the possible transitions of global and regional energy system,this study applied a 14-region energy system model (GTIMES) with scenarios designed using Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs),and detailed depicts the quantification of SSPs trajectories into GTIMES model.Modeling results show that:1) Global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 37-74 Gt by 2050 under reference scenarios,while they will decrease to 12-14 Gt under higher possibility pathways to reach 2 ℃ target,with ratios of non-fossil fuel round to 42％-46％.2) Electrification level has to increase noticeably in regional transition with a global average level of about 44％ to achieve significant emission reduction.3) Higher level of mitigation cost would happen with the constraint mitigation target,as well as social and economic trajectories chosen.Therefore,following trajectories of sustainable development is necessary.

GTIMES modelShared social-economic pathwaysCO2 emissionEnergy consumption

YANG Lei、SHI Jing-Cheng、CHEN Wen-Ying、James GLYNN、Brian (O) GALLACH(O)IR

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Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084,China

MaREI Centre for Energy,Climate and Marine,Environmental Research Institute,University College Cork,Cork,T12 K8AF,Ireland

School of Engineering,University College Cork,Cork,T12 K8AF,Ireland

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaMinistry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China

71690243518611351022018YFC1509006

2021

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2021.12(6)
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