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Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

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Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4％,5.7％,and 8.2％of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2％of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2％,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9％)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6％).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

Climate loss and damageIntegrated assessment model(IAM)FUND modelRepresentative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenarioBCC-SESM

Jie LIU、Xiang-Zhen SHI、Li YANG、Chang-Yi LIU、Jin-Cheng WANG、Rui-Min ZHU、Xue-Li SHI、Qiu-Feng LIU

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International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062,China

University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China

School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China

Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO),Beijing 100031,China

Hubei Enshi College,Enshi 445099,China

CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaHumanities and Social Science Research Project of the Ministry of Education of ChinaNational Key R&D Program of China

4217517120XJC7900022016YFA0602602

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.012

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(1)
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