首页|Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta,China

Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta,China

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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The coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta(YRD)in China are crucial for their valuable resources,environmental significance,and economic contributions.However,these wetlands are also vulnerable to the dual threats of climate change and human disturbances.Despite substantial attention to the historical shifts in YRD's coastal wetlands,uncertainties remain regarding their future trajectory in the face of compound risks from climate change and anthropogenic activities.Based on a range of remote sensing data sources,this study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of YRD's coastal wetlands between 2000 and 2020.Subsequently,the potential fate of coastal wetlands is thoroughly analyzed through the Land Use/Cover Change(LUCC)simulation using System Dynamic-Future Land Use Simulation(SD-FLUS)model and the extreme water levels projection integrated future sea-level rise,storm surge,and astronomical high tide in 2030,2050,and 2100 under scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5.Results revealed that YRD's coastal wetlands underwent a marked reduction,shrinking by 1688.72 km2 from 2000 to 2020.This decline was mostly attributed to the substantial expansion in the areas of artificial wetlands(increasing by 823.78 km2),construction land(increasing by 767.71 km2),and shallow water(increasing by 274.58 km2).Looking ahead to 2030-2100,the fate of coastal wetlands appears to diverge based on different scenarios.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the area of coastal wetland is projected to experience considerable growth.In contrast,the SSP5-8.5 scenario anticipates a notable decrease in coastal wetlands.Relative to the inundated area suffered from the current extreme water levels,the study projects a decrease of 6.8％-10.6％in submerged coastal wetlands by 2030 and 9.4％-18.2％by 2050 across all scenarios.In 2100,these percentages are projected to decrease by 0.4％(SSP2-4.5)and 27.1％(SSP5-8.5),but increase by 35.7％(SSP1-2.6).Results suggest that coastal wetlands in the YRD will face a serious compound risk from climate change and intensified human activities in the future,with climate change being the dominant factor.More efficient and forward-looking measures must be implemented to prioritize the conservation and management of coastal wetland ecosystems to address the challenges,especially those posed by climate change.

Climate changeAnthropogenic activitiesCompound extreme riskCoastal wetlandsYellow River Delta

Xiao-Li WANG、Ai-Qing FENG、Xi-Yong HOU、Qing-Chen CHAO、Bai-Yuan SONG、Yu-Bin LIU、Qi-Guang WANG、He XU、Yu-Xin ZHANG、Dong LI、Li-Jie DONG、Yu GUO

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CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation,Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Yantai 264003,China

Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes,Yantai 264003,China

China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China

Tongji Urban Planning Design Research Institute,Shanghai 200092,China

School of Geography and Tourism,Qilu Normal University,Jinan 250200,China

China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Marine Science and Technology College,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSeed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of SciencesSpecial Project for Compilation of the Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change of the Ministry of Science and TechnoYouth Open Project of China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies

419011334190101641975100YICE351030601210YBXM201810-8002CMA-LCPS-23-04

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.010

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(1)
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