Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia:State of art and scientific challenges

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国家科技期刊平台
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外文摘要：High Mountain Asia(HMA)shows a remarkable warming tendency and divergent trend of regional precipitation with enhanced meteorological extremes.The rapid thawing of the HMA cryosphere may alter the magnitude and frequency of nature hazards.We reviewed the influence of climate change on various types of nature hazards in HMA region,including their phenomena,mechanisms and impacts.It reveals that:1)the occurrences of extreme rainfall,heavy snowfall,and drifting snow hazards are escalating;accelerated ice and snow melting have advanced the onset and increased the magnitude of snowmelt floods;2)due to elevating trigger factors,such as glacier debuttressing and the rapid shift of thermal and hydrological regime of bedrock/snow/ice interface or subsurface,the mass flow hazards including bedrock landslide,snow avalanche,ice-rock avalanches or glacier detachment,and debris flow will become more severe;3)increased active-layer detachment and retrogressive thaw slumps slope failures,thaw settlement and thermokarst lake will damage many important engineering structures and infrastructure in permafrost region;4)multi-hazards cascading hazard in HMA,such as the glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF)and avalanche-induced mass flow may greatly enlarge the destructive power of the primary hazard by amplifying its volume,mobility,and impact force;and 5)enhanced slope instability and sediment supply in the highland areas could impose remote catastrophic impacts upon lowland regions,and threat hydropower security and future water shortage.In future,ongoing thawing of HMA will profoundly weaken the multiple-phase material of bedrock,ice,water,and soil,and enhance activities of nature hazards.Compounding and cascading hazards of high magnitude will prevail in HMA.As the glacier runoff overpasses the peak water,low flow or droughts in lowland areas downstream of glacierized mountain regions will became more frequent and severe.Addressing escalating hazards in the HMA region requires tackling scientific challenges,including understanding multiscale evolution and for-mation mechanism of HMA hazard-prone systems,coupling thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in multi-phase flows,predicting catastrophes arising from extreme weather and climate events,and comprehending how highland hazards propagate to lowlands due to climate change.

外文关键词：

High Mountain AsiaClimate changeCryosphere degradationNature hazardsDisaster risk

作者：

Hao WANG、Bin-Bin WANG、Peng CUI、Yao-Ming MA、Yan WANG、Jian-Sheng HAO、Yu WANG、Ya-Mei LI、Li-Jun SUN、Jiao WANG、Guo-Tao ZHANG、Wei-Mo LI、Yu LEI、Wen-Qing ZHAO、Jin-Bo TANG、Chao-Yue LI

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作者单位：

Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China

State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan

College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China

National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes,Dingri 858200,China

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基金：

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)Science and Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences

项目编号：

41941017421010832019QZKK0906IMHE-ZDRW-02

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806

ISSN：1674-9278

年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)