Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau

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外文摘要：Mountainous areas are of special hydrological concern because topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large and sudden floods,posing serious risks to water-related safety in neighbouring countries.The Yarlung Zangbo(YZ)River basin is the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but how floods will discharge in this basin and how the role of glacier melt in floods will change throughout the 21st-century under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)remain unclear.Here,we comprehensively address this scientific question based on a well-validated large-scale glacier-hydrology model.The results indicate that extreme floods was projected to increase in the YZ basin,and was mainly reflected in increased duration(4-10 d per decade)and intensity(153-985 m3 s-1 per decade).Glacier runoff was projected to increase(2-30 mm per decade)throughout the 21st-century,but there was also a noticeable decrease or deceleration in glacier runoff growth in the late first half of the century under the SSP2-4.5,and in the latter half of the century under the SSP5-8.5.Glacier melt was projected to enhance the duration(12％-23％)and intensity(15％-21％)of extreme floods under both SSPs,which would aggravate the impact of future floods on the socioeconomics of the YZ basin.This effect was gradually overwhelmed by precipitation-induced floods from glacier areas to YZ outlet.This study takes the YZ basin as a projection framework example to help enrich the understanding of future flood hazards in basins affected by rainfall-or meltwater across the TP,and to help policy-makers and water managers develop future plans.

作者：

He SUN、Tan-Dong YAO、Feng-Ge SU、Tinghai OU、Zhihua HE、Guoqiang TANG、Deliang CHEN

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作者单位：

State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden

Centre for Hydrology,University of Saskatchewan,Saskatoon S7N 1K2,Canada

Climate and Global Dynamics,National Center for Atmospheric Research,Boulder CO 80307,USA

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基金：

National Natural Science Foundation of Chinaproject funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation

项目编号：

422011402022M723256

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.003

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806

ISSN：1674-9278

年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)