首页|Frequency and size change of ice-snow avalanches in the central Himalaya:A case from the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier

Frequency and size change of ice-snow avalanches in the central Himalaya:A case from the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier

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Glaciers have retreated and shrunk in High Mountain Asia since the mid-20th century because of global warming,leading to glacier instability and hazardous ice-snow avalanches.However,the complex relationship between ice-snow avalanches and factors such as climate and potential triggers are difficult to understand because of the lack of observational data.Here,we addressed ice-snow avalanches on the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier in Nepal,Central Himalaya.We constructed an ice-snow avalanche history using long-term multi-source remote sensing images(1988-2021)and mapped the velocity fields of glaciers using cross-correlation analysis on SAR and optical images.Then,we investigated the impact of climate change and earthquakes on the frequency and size of ice-snow avalanches.The results demonstrate that the frequency of ice-snow avalanches has increased from 10 in 1988 to 27 in 2020,but the average area of ice-snow avalanche deposits has decreased by approximately 70％,from 3.4 x 105 m2 in 1988 to 1.2 x 105 m2 in 2020.The evolutionary characteristic of ice avalanches is linked to the impact of glacier retreat(reduction in ice material supply)and increased activity under climate change.The glacier movement velocity controls the size of ice-snow avalanches and can be set as an indicator for ice-snow avalanche warnings.On the Annapurna Ⅱ glacier,an ice-snow avalanche occurred when the glacier velocities were greater than 1.5 m d-1.These results offer insights into ice-snow avalanche risk assessment and prediction in high-mountain areas,particularly in regions characterised by dense glacier distribution.

Ice-snow avalancheGlacier instabilityClimate changeCentral HimalayaRemote sensing

Yao LI、Yi-Fei CUI、Jian-Sheng HAO、Zheng-Tao ZHANG、Hao WANG、Jian GUO、Shuo-Fan WANG

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State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China

Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100084,China

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)China Postdoctoral Science FoundationChina Postdoctoral Science FoundationFundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesSchool of National Safety and Emergency Management of Beijing Normal University FundsResearch Fund Program of the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering

42301086421201040022019QZKK09062023M7318742022M7217712021NTST282021-KY-04

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.03.006

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)