首页|Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)

Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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  • NSTL
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To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan,this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980s-2017 and projected changes within a representative gla-cierized high-mountain region:eastern Tien Shan,Central Asia.Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3,and SSP5)using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module.Discharge rates at annual,monthly(June,July,August)and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges:Urumqi Glacier No.l hydrological station(UGH)and Zongkong station(ZK).Overall,annual and summer discharge increased significantly(p＜0.05)at both stations over the study period.Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms.The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios.Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH.This relates to glacier type and size,suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner,resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge.These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.

Observed glacial dischargeTemporal variationsUrumqi River HeadwatersEastern Tien ShanSimulation and projection

Hui ZHANG、Fei-Teng WANG、Ping ZHOU、Yi-Da XIE

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State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition ProgramSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and ResearchNational Natural Science Foundation of China

2021xjkk08012019QZKK020142301168

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.001

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)